armin's stock selection blog here
Thanks!
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
DRYS
DRYS shares had a setback lately on selling frenzy even though has nothing to do subprime mortgage problems or significant change in fundamentals. A confluence of the fundamental factors remain intact, history too. So why I have selected DRYS in my portfolio ? Due to scents of the past, maybe, or for other reasons? Anyway, I'm flipping a ducat in this amphora!
past
The Greeks, despite the struggles they have gone through history, have remained mariners without interruption so the aspect of their character. It's like love affair between the Greeks and the sea, an inseparable couple, two inseparable elements of life. Almost all of the Greek shipowners come from the rocky Greek islands. The neighboring islands of Chios and Inoussai,for example, have produced such shipping families as Lemos, Kulukundis, Pateras, Carras, Papalios...Traditionally, boys begin as sailors and send their wages back to the island to feed the family. If enough sons go to sea, the family may eventually save enough money to buy an old boat and if the ship makes money, the family buys another, then another. Most Greek shipowners started out this way!
So, I believe, they know about secrets of the shipping today, about how to mange vessels and they will be the first to weather future storms. Try to decipher through the fixtures on the Baltic Exchange about how their philosophy beats other at any time. Many times the Greek shipowners get a higher freight for some reason.
present
Well, DryShips, Inc. engages in the ownership and operation of drybulk carriers worldwide. The company's fleet carries various drybulk commodities, including coal, iron ore, and grains, bauxite, phosphate, fertilizers, and steel products.
By the way, I have been sailing on Panamax bulk carriers so believe that one of the DRYS vessels is loading coal today in Richard's Bay (South Africa), or sailing unfixed in ballast for Key West for order, eventually loading grains in Mississippi river, later. Not much has changed for the last 20 years or so.
In fact, on Aug 21, 2007 -- DryShips Inc. (NasdaqGS:DRYS - News), announced its unaudited financial and operating results for the second quarter and first half ended June 30, 2007.more
George Economou, the Company's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of DryShips Inc., commented:
"We are pleased to report a second consecutive quarter with record EBITDA. We remain committed to implementing our previously stated chartering philosophy and to position more vessels to trade in the spot market on a voyage by voyage basis as the vessels are coming off previously concluded short-term charters. As of today, 52% of our fleet operating days for the remainder of 2007 remain unfixed.
"We continue to selectively add new and modern vessels to our existing fleet while disposing of older and smaller vessels, with a goal towards ensuring the longevity and quality of our fleet's earning capacity. Once the recently announced sale and purchase activity has been completed by the end of the first quarter of 2008 the Company's fleet will consist of a total of 46 vessels (including 7 new buildings) with an average age of just below 9 years, well below the industry average of about 13 years. "The outlook for 2008 remains positive with fewer vessels being delivered from the shipyards and Chinese demand projected to remain strong. DryShips will have approximately 17% more fleet operating days compared to 2007 and with approximately 97% of its fleet operating days unfixed it is in a unique position to take full advantage of this opportunity."
To say, that the Marine industry is mature, cyclical, and highly fragmented, but from 2004 to the present, the S&P Marine Index showed robust growth compared to the market as a whole, with Asian-Pacific routes showed the greatest growth. The demand for commodities from China and India combined with the shortage of dry bulk ships, is leading to an enormous increase in dry bulk rates, which for cape size ships are now almost $95,000 a day. The cost to operate these ships is under $10,000 a day.
It appeals DRYS revenue growth above industry average and ROE at 23.90%. Global growth would help DRYS shares to gain new higher territories.
future
The shipping industry has always had something to do with the past, elegantly simple for the Greek shipowners; it seems like to get as close as to having next month's shipping newspaper, today!
continue reading
see blog here
Thanks!
past
The Greeks, despite the struggles they have gone through history, have remained mariners without interruption so the aspect of their character. It's like love affair between the Greeks and the sea, an inseparable couple, two inseparable elements of life. Almost all of the Greek shipowners come from the rocky Greek islands. The neighboring islands of Chios and Inoussai,for example, have produced such shipping families as Lemos, Kulukundis, Pateras, Carras, Papalios...Traditionally, boys begin as sailors and send their wages back to the island to feed the family. If enough sons go to sea, the family may eventually save enough money to buy an old boat and if the ship makes money, the family buys another, then another. Most Greek shipowners started out this way!
So, I believe, they know about secrets of the shipping today, about how to mange vessels and they will be the first to weather future storms. Try to decipher through the fixtures on the Baltic Exchange about how their philosophy beats other at any time. Many times the Greek shipowners get a higher freight for some reason.
present
Well, DryShips, Inc. engages in the ownership and operation of drybulk carriers worldwide. The company's fleet carries various drybulk commodities, including coal, iron ore, and grains, bauxite, phosphate, fertilizers, and steel products.
By the way, I have been sailing on Panamax bulk carriers so believe that one of the DRYS vessels is loading coal today in Richard's Bay (South Africa), or sailing unfixed in ballast for Key West for order, eventually loading grains in Mississippi river, later. Not much has changed for the last 20 years or so.
In fact, on Aug 21, 2007 -- DryShips Inc. (NasdaqGS:DRYS - News), announced its unaudited financial and operating results for the second quarter and first half ended June 30, 2007.more
George Economou, the Company's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of DryShips Inc., commented:
"We are pleased to report a second consecutive quarter with record EBITDA. We remain committed to implementing our previously stated chartering philosophy and to position more vessels to trade in the spot market on a voyage by voyage basis as the vessels are coming off previously concluded short-term charters. As of today, 52% of our fleet operating days for the remainder of 2007 remain unfixed.
"We continue to selectively add new and modern vessels to our existing fleet while disposing of older and smaller vessels, with a goal towards ensuring the longevity and quality of our fleet's earning capacity. Once the recently announced sale and purchase activity has been completed by the end of the first quarter of 2008 the Company's fleet will consist of a total of 46 vessels (including 7 new buildings) with an average age of just below 9 years, well below the industry average of about 13 years. "The outlook for 2008 remains positive with fewer vessels being delivered from the shipyards and Chinese demand projected to remain strong. DryShips will have approximately 17% more fleet operating days compared to 2007 and with approximately 97% of its fleet operating days unfixed it is in a unique position to take full advantage of this opportunity."
To say, that the Marine industry is mature, cyclical, and highly fragmented, but from 2004 to the present, the S&P Marine Index showed robust growth compared to the market as a whole, with Asian-Pacific routes showed the greatest growth. The demand for commodities from China and India combined with the shortage of dry bulk ships, is leading to an enormous increase in dry bulk rates, which for cape size ships are now almost $95,000 a day. The cost to operate these ships is under $10,000 a day.
It appeals DRYS revenue growth above industry average and ROE at 23.90%. Global growth would help DRYS shares to gain new higher territories.
future
The shipping industry has always had something to do with the past, elegantly simple for the Greek shipowners; it seems like to get as close as to having next month's shipping newspaper, today!
continue reading
see blog here
Thanks!
Wednesday, August 1, 2007
Thursday, July 26, 2007
Financials
Financials were on a tear until the February Panic, outpacing the S&P 500 and most major sectors over the past two years. But unlike the other sectors, financials were hit hard with another wave of selling in late May and June. The following expanded view of two years of comparable performance illustrates the double blow which hit financials this year.
Risk averse investors should be stepping aside until the dust clears.
Wednesday, July 25, 2007
Thursday, July 19, 2007
Income Investing
Income Investing idea is to set:
Preferred Dividend Income Portfolio, as many companies issue preferred stock, which combines some of the characteristics of both stocks and bonds. Like bonds, preferred stocks are designed to pay a fixed rate of income for a set period of time and are sold on the basis of yield.
There are possible tax advantages, too.
Not bad at all!
Preferred Dividend Income Portfolio, as many companies issue preferred stock, which combines some of the characteristics of both stocks and bonds. Like bonds, preferred stocks are designed to pay a fixed rate of income for a set period of time and are sold on the basis of yield.
There are possible tax advantages, too.
Not bad at all!
Wednesday, June 27, 2007
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
staples stocks
No matter how bad or good, buy through staples stocks could be a good investment. Year to date through June 8, this sector, which represents 9.3% of the S&P 500 index, rose 5.2% compared with a 6.3% gain for the “500.” In 2006, this sector rose 11.8% versus a 13.6% rise for the S&P 500. There are 12 industry indexes in this sector; household products is the largest, representing 22% of the sector’s market value.
see ranking in consumer staples sector
see ranking in consumer staples sector
AMTD
SEC filings revealed two hedge funds, JANA Partners and S.A.C.
Capital, have built up a position in TD Ameritrade, representing about
8.4% of its shares, and their goal is for the online broker to merge with a peer.
Sentiment: Buy
Capital, have built up a position in TD Ameritrade, representing about
8.4% of its shares, and their goal is for the online broker to merge with a peer.
Sentiment: Buy
Setbacks
MSCI AC World index (which includes emerging markets) is up 113% since March 2003.
The MSCI Emerging market index is now 181% above its 2003 low and
214% above its late 1990s high. Europe, Japan, and Asia Pac (ex Japan) have
seen similar performances since 2000 (+130%). Although the U.S. has lagged
(+88% since 2003), this is still a respectable absolute performance. It has been
a global bull market.We all know that markets don’t rise in a straight line.
This four-year bull market has seen four meaningful (5%+) setbacks. Each has
followed a 15%+ rally in the World index and has offered an opportunity to buy
ahead of the next upward move. Sure, these sell-offs may have been painful for
leveraged traders (especially the 11% setback in May 2006), but the biggest
mistake for any long-term investor would have been to sell into these dips.
Source: Smith Barney, Portfolio Strategist.
The MSCI Emerging market index is now 181% above its 2003 low and
214% above its late 1990s high. Europe, Japan, and Asia Pac (ex Japan) have
seen similar performances since 2000 (+130%). Although the U.S. has lagged
(+88% since 2003), this is still a respectable absolute performance. It has been
a global bull market.We all know that markets don’t rise in a straight line.
This four-year bull market has seen four meaningful (5%+) setbacks. Each has
followed a 15%+ rally in the World index and has offered an opportunity to buy
ahead of the next upward move. Sure, these sell-offs may have been painful for
leveraged traders (especially the 11% setback in May 2006), but the biggest
mistake for any long-term investor would have been to sell into these dips.
Source: Smith Barney, Portfolio Strategist.
Friday, June 15, 2007
by Ken Kam
MSN Strategy Lab, 6/14/07 - Ken Kam shares his personal plan to build a safer safety net for our kids ("A safety net safer than Social Security," by Ken Kam) click here
Thursday, June 14, 2007
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