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Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Recessions/Stock drops

But what's a recession? Business cycles are made up of periods of economic expansion and recessions, when the economy is contracting. The generally accepted arbiter of when U.S. recessions begin and end is the "business cycle dating committee" of the 87-year old National Bureau of Economic Research, a non-profit group based in Cambridge, Mass., that is made up of 600 academic economists. The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months," and usually visible in measures such as gross domestic product, employment, incomes and industrial production. A popular rule of thumb says a recession is two consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP, although that doesn't fit some NBER-designated recessions. But recessions don't always coincide with stock drops:
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armin's stock selection blog here

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