Wednesday, January 23, 2008
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Recessions/Stock drops
But what's a recession? Business cycles are made up of periods of economic expansion and recessions, when the economy is contracting. The generally accepted arbiter of when U.S. recessions begin and end is the "business cycle dating committee" of the 87-year old National Bureau of Economic Research, a non-profit group based in Cambridge, Mass., that is made up of 600 academic economists. The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months," and usually visible in measures such as gross domestic product, employment, incomes and industrial production. A popular rule of thumb says a recession is two consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP, although that doesn't fit some NBER-designated recessions. But recessions don't always coincide with stock drops:
more
armin's stock selection blog here
more
armin's stock selection blog here
Monday, January 21, 2008
POST Strategy!
My experience in the stock market investing is more about what I do and less about what you should do!
The pillars of the POST:
Portfolio Management Opportunities Sense Time
about me at marketocracy...
The pillars of the POST:
Portfolio Management Opportunities Sense Time
about me at marketocracy...
Investing Axioms
There is a book The Zurich Axioms, The rules of risk and reward used by generations of Swiss bankers by Max Gunther, providing a practical philosophy for the realistic management of risk, which can be followed successfully by anyone, not merely the 'experts'. Of course. it's not a kind of recipe for success, but you can enjoy reading, too. Some sayings are not necessarily bound to investing world, but sound practical. Strategy Lab Open competition seems like golf tournament, not all of us will become next Tiger Woods who is a great golfer, but, strangely, he usually hits lousy bunker shots. How has he dealt with the problem?Living in a bunker!No! By perfecting and refining his main strength, the swing. If it works like a clock, he never has to pay the bunkers a visit.
I suggest this Latin proverb:
"Quidquid agis, prudenter agas et respice finem!"
translation:
Whatever you do, do cautiously, and look to the end.
You can read more at:
marketocracy general forums Quote of the Year
What's your favorite one?
I suggest this Latin proverb:
"Quidquid agis, prudenter agas et respice finem!"
translation:
Whatever you do, do cautiously, and look to the end.
You can read more at:
marketocracy general forums Quote of the Year
What's your favorite one?
Thursday, January 17, 2008
TNH /Terra Nitrogen
Update:
Terra Nitrogen is the smallest agricultural company , but it shows the most interesting short-term opportunity. The stock rallied up to 140 in July and pulled back. It returned to this level in December and broke out two weeks later, completing a cup-and-handle pattern.
The rally spike hit 159 a few days later, with price then pulling back sharply. That decline undercut the breakout level for three sessions. The stock jumped higher on Friday and ran up to a new high on Monday. This sets up an excellent trade entry when price pulls back to fill the 147 to 150 gap.
larger image
Will hold this stock into SLO Round 2.
ASTRA portfolio::
TNH
Portion of fund: 8.15%
Inception return: 36.48 % (Since July31, 2007)
more
BUSINESS SUMMARY
Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P., through its subsidiary, Terra Nitrogen, Limited Partnership, engages in the production and distribution of nitrogen fertilizer products for use in agricultural and industrial markets. Its nitrogen product includes anhydrous ammonia, a form of nitrogen fertilizer and the feedstock for the production of other nitrogen fertilizers, such as urea ammonium nitrate solutions (UAN). Terra also produces UAN by combining urea solution and ammonium nitrate solution. Terra Nitrogen GP, Inc. serves as the general partner of the company. It sells its products primarily in the Central and Southern Plains and Corn Belt regions of the United States. Terra's customers include dealers, national farm retail chains, distributors, and other fertilizer producers and traders. The company was founded in 1991 and is based in Sioux City, Iowa. Terra Nitrogen Co. LP operates as a subsidiary of Terra Nitrogen Corporation.
Visit also:
about me at marketocracy...
my funds...
Terra Nitrogen is the smallest agricultural company , but it shows the most interesting short-term opportunity. The stock rallied up to 140 in July and pulled back. It returned to this level in December and broke out two weeks later, completing a cup-and-handle pattern.
The rally spike hit 159 a few days later, with price then pulling back sharply. That decline undercut the breakout level for three sessions. The stock jumped higher on Friday and ran up to a new high on Monday. This sets up an excellent trade entry when price pulls back to fill the 147 to 150 gap.
larger image
Will hold this stock into SLO Round 2.
ASTRA portfolio::
TNH
Portion of fund: 8.15%
Inception return: 36.48 % (Since July31, 2007)
more
BUSINESS SUMMARY
Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P., through its subsidiary, Terra Nitrogen, Limited Partnership, engages in the production and distribution of nitrogen fertilizer products for use in agricultural and industrial markets. Its nitrogen product includes anhydrous ammonia, a form of nitrogen fertilizer and the feedstock for the production of other nitrogen fertilizers, such as urea ammonium nitrate solutions (UAN). Terra also produces UAN by combining urea solution and ammonium nitrate solution. Terra Nitrogen GP, Inc. serves as the general partner of the company. It sells its products primarily in the Central and Southern Plains and Corn Belt regions of the United States. Terra's customers include dealers, national farm retail chains, distributors, and other fertilizer producers and traders. The company was founded in 1991 and is based in Sioux City, Iowa. Terra Nitrogen Co. LP operates as a subsidiary of Terra Nitrogen Corporation.
Visit also:
about me at marketocracy...
my funds...
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
Dry Bulk Shipping
International shipping plays a vital role in global trade given that 2/3 of the world's goods are transported by sea. The shipping industry provides a cost effective and practical means of transportation internationally of large volumes of cargoes.
The dry bulk carrier market refers to the transportation of homogeneous commodities in bulk. Dry bulk commodities are divided into two distinct categories, major bulks and minor bulks. Major bulks include iron ore, coal and grain, which are usually shipped on the larger size Capesize and Panamax vessels and comprise about 67% of dry bulk trade. Minor bulks are fertilizers, steels, sugars, cement etc., which are shipped in smaller more versatile vessels such as Handymax and Handysize, and comprise about 33% of the dry bulk commodities trade.
Dry bulk carrier ownership is fragmented with many owners and operators of shipping tonnage, including independent operators, state-controlled shipping companies and proprietary owners. Vessels utilised for transport of dry bulk cargoes are usually classified into four categories based on their carrying capacity in deadweight tons (DWT) (i) handysize (10,000-39,999 DWT) (ii) handymax/supramax (40,000-59,999 DWT) (iii) panamax (60,000-99,999 DWT) and (iv) capesize (higher than 100,000 DWT).
The shipping industry is highly cyclical, experiencing volatility in profitability, vessel values and charter rates resulting from changes in the supply of and demand for shipping capacity. Fluctuations result from the interaction of various factors between demand and supply. The demand for vessels is influenced by global and regional economic conditions, international trade developments, port congestion, trading routes and weather pattern changes, crop yields, armed conflicts, political developments, embargoes and strikes, demand for consumer goods, dry bulk commodities, and crude oil and oil products.
Supply of shipping capacity is mainly a function of the delivery of new vessels and the number of older vessels scrapped and is also affected among other things by port congestion and regulation of maritime transportation practices by governmental and international authorities.
Visit also:
armin's stock selection blog here
The dry bulk carrier market refers to the transportation of homogeneous commodities in bulk. Dry bulk commodities are divided into two distinct categories, major bulks and minor bulks. Major bulks include iron ore, coal and grain, which are usually shipped on the larger size Capesize and Panamax vessels and comprise about 67% of dry bulk trade. Minor bulks are fertilizers, steels, sugars, cement etc., which are shipped in smaller more versatile vessels such as Handymax and Handysize, and comprise about 33% of the dry bulk commodities trade.
Dry bulk carrier ownership is fragmented with many owners and operators of shipping tonnage, including independent operators, state-controlled shipping companies and proprietary owners. Vessels utilised for transport of dry bulk cargoes are usually classified into four categories based on their carrying capacity in deadweight tons (DWT) (i) handysize (10,000-39,999 DWT) (ii) handymax/supramax (40,000-59,999 DWT) (iii) panamax (60,000-99,999 DWT) and (iv) capesize (higher than 100,000 DWT).
The shipping industry is highly cyclical, experiencing volatility in profitability, vessel values and charter rates resulting from changes in the supply of and demand for shipping capacity. Fluctuations result from the interaction of various factors between demand and supply. The demand for vessels is influenced by global and regional economic conditions, international trade developments, port congestion, trading routes and weather pattern changes, crop yields, armed conflicts, political developments, embargoes and strikes, demand for consumer goods, dry bulk commodities, and crude oil and oil products.
Supply of shipping capacity is mainly a function of the delivery of new vessels and the number of older vessels scrapped and is also affected among other things by port congestion and regulation of maritime transportation practices by governmental and international authorities.
Visit also:
armin's stock selection blog here
Monday, January 14, 2008
Congrats to Vad!
The winner of SLO Round1
Frankly, I didn't know you're good in Greek language as well.
stretcheddelta
iis a new letter!
Significant difference is a keyword!
Congrats again!
Visit also:
armin's stock selection blog here
Thanks!
Frankly, I didn't know you're good in Greek language as well.
stretcheddelta
iis a new letter!
Significant difference is a keyword!
Congrats again!
Visit also:
armin's stock selection blog here
Thanks!
Wednesday, December 26, 2007
Eve
Enjoy this awesome video of Chris Botti ,
enjoy the music!
Chris Botti" nessun dorma"
armin's stock selection blog here
enjoy the music!
Chris Botti" nessun dorma"
armin's stock selection blog here
Friday, December 14, 2007
Wednesday, August 29, 2007
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
DRYS
DRYS shares had a setback lately on selling frenzy even though has nothing to do subprime mortgage problems or significant change in fundamentals. A confluence of the fundamental factors remain intact, history too. So why I have selected DRYS in my portfolio ? Due to scents of the past, maybe, or for other reasons? Anyway, I'm flipping a ducat in this amphora!
past
The Greeks, despite the struggles they have gone through history, have remained mariners without interruption so the aspect of their character. It's like love affair between the Greeks and the sea, an inseparable couple, two inseparable elements of life. Almost all of the Greek shipowners come from the rocky Greek islands. The neighboring islands of Chios and Inoussai,for example, have produced such shipping families as Lemos, Kulukundis, Pateras, Carras, Papalios...Traditionally, boys begin as sailors and send their wages back to the island to feed the family. If enough sons go to sea, the family may eventually save enough money to buy an old boat and if the ship makes money, the family buys another, then another. Most Greek shipowners started out this way!
So, I believe, they know about secrets of the shipping today, about how to mange vessels and they will be the first to weather future storms. Try to decipher through the fixtures on the Baltic Exchange about how their philosophy beats other at any time. Many times the Greek shipowners get a higher freight for some reason.
present
Well, DryShips, Inc. engages in the ownership and operation of drybulk carriers worldwide. The company's fleet carries various drybulk commodities, including coal, iron ore, and grains, bauxite, phosphate, fertilizers, and steel products.
By the way, I have been sailing on Panamax bulk carriers so believe that one of the DRYS vessels is loading coal today in Richard's Bay (South Africa), or sailing unfixed in ballast for Key West for order, eventually loading grains in Mississippi river, later. Not much has changed for the last 20 years or so.
In fact, on Aug 21, 2007 -- DryShips Inc. (NasdaqGS:DRYS - News), announced its unaudited financial and operating results for the second quarter and first half ended June 30, 2007.more
George Economou, the Company's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of DryShips Inc., commented:
"We are pleased to report a second consecutive quarter with record EBITDA. We remain committed to implementing our previously stated chartering philosophy and to position more vessels to trade in the spot market on a voyage by voyage basis as the vessels are coming off previously concluded short-term charters. As of today, 52% of our fleet operating days for the remainder of 2007 remain unfixed.
"We continue to selectively add new and modern vessels to our existing fleet while disposing of older and smaller vessels, with a goal towards ensuring the longevity and quality of our fleet's earning capacity. Once the recently announced sale and purchase activity has been completed by the end of the first quarter of 2008 the Company's fleet will consist of a total of 46 vessels (including 7 new buildings) with an average age of just below 9 years, well below the industry average of about 13 years. "The outlook for 2008 remains positive with fewer vessels being delivered from the shipyards and Chinese demand projected to remain strong. DryShips will have approximately 17% more fleet operating days compared to 2007 and with approximately 97% of its fleet operating days unfixed it is in a unique position to take full advantage of this opportunity."
To say, that the Marine industry is mature, cyclical, and highly fragmented, but from 2004 to the present, the S&P Marine Index showed robust growth compared to the market as a whole, with Asian-Pacific routes showed the greatest growth. The demand for commodities from China and India combined with the shortage of dry bulk ships, is leading to an enormous increase in dry bulk rates, which for cape size ships are now almost $95,000 a day. The cost to operate these ships is under $10,000 a day.
It appeals DRYS revenue growth above industry average and ROE at 23.90%. Global growth would help DRYS shares to gain new higher territories.
future
The shipping industry has always had something to do with the past, elegantly simple for the Greek shipowners; it seems like to get as close as to having next month's shipping newspaper, today!
continue reading
see blog here
Thanks!
past
The Greeks, despite the struggles they have gone through history, have remained mariners without interruption so the aspect of their character. It's like love affair between the Greeks and the sea, an inseparable couple, two inseparable elements of life. Almost all of the Greek shipowners come from the rocky Greek islands. The neighboring islands of Chios and Inoussai,for example, have produced such shipping families as Lemos, Kulukundis, Pateras, Carras, Papalios...Traditionally, boys begin as sailors and send their wages back to the island to feed the family. If enough sons go to sea, the family may eventually save enough money to buy an old boat and if the ship makes money, the family buys another, then another. Most Greek shipowners started out this way!
So, I believe, they know about secrets of the shipping today, about how to mange vessels and they will be the first to weather future storms. Try to decipher through the fixtures on the Baltic Exchange about how their philosophy beats other at any time. Many times the Greek shipowners get a higher freight for some reason.
present
Well, DryShips, Inc. engages in the ownership and operation of drybulk carriers worldwide. The company's fleet carries various drybulk commodities, including coal, iron ore, and grains, bauxite, phosphate, fertilizers, and steel products.
By the way, I have been sailing on Panamax bulk carriers so believe that one of the DRYS vessels is loading coal today in Richard's Bay (South Africa), or sailing unfixed in ballast for Key West for order, eventually loading grains in Mississippi river, later. Not much has changed for the last 20 years or so.
In fact, on Aug 21, 2007 -- DryShips Inc. (NasdaqGS:DRYS - News), announced its unaudited financial and operating results for the second quarter and first half ended June 30, 2007.more
George Economou, the Company's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of DryShips Inc., commented:
"We are pleased to report a second consecutive quarter with record EBITDA. We remain committed to implementing our previously stated chartering philosophy and to position more vessels to trade in the spot market on a voyage by voyage basis as the vessels are coming off previously concluded short-term charters. As of today, 52% of our fleet operating days for the remainder of 2007 remain unfixed.
"We continue to selectively add new and modern vessels to our existing fleet while disposing of older and smaller vessels, with a goal towards ensuring the longevity and quality of our fleet's earning capacity. Once the recently announced sale and purchase activity has been completed by the end of the first quarter of 2008 the Company's fleet will consist of a total of 46 vessels (including 7 new buildings) with an average age of just below 9 years, well below the industry average of about 13 years. "The outlook for 2008 remains positive with fewer vessels being delivered from the shipyards and Chinese demand projected to remain strong. DryShips will have approximately 17% more fleet operating days compared to 2007 and with approximately 97% of its fleet operating days unfixed it is in a unique position to take full advantage of this opportunity."
To say, that the Marine industry is mature, cyclical, and highly fragmented, but from 2004 to the present, the S&P Marine Index showed robust growth compared to the market as a whole, with Asian-Pacific routes showed the greatest growth. The demand for commodities from China and India combined with the shortage of dry bulk ships, is leading to an enormous increase in dry bulk rates, which for cape size ships are now almost $95,000 a day. The cost to operate these ships is under $10,000 a day.
It appeals DRYS revenue growth above industry average and ROE at 23.90%. Global growth would help DRYS shares to gain new higher territories.
future
The shipping industry has always had something to do with the past, elegantly simple for the Greek shipowners; it seems like to get as close as to having next month's shipping newspaper, today!
continue reading
see blog here
Thanks!
Wednesday, August 1, 2007
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)