Fed could burst oil's bubble

Central bank rate cuts have devalued the dollar, fueling the rise in crude prices; but if rate slashing stops, oil's rise may ease.



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Weekend reading

Investing isn't just a coin tossThere's a lingering idea that past performance doesn't matter, even in investing. True, it's no guarantee, but performance does count. Here's why.

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AAPL

Many said that Apple's numbers were so-so, but not so bad at all after the iPod maker posts better-than-expected increase in revenue and profits on strong Mac. But Investors shouldn't be too surprised though since Apple consistently is conservative with its guidance. In fact I've been bullish on AAPL stock for sometime going back several months ago when wrote "love is blind" on my blog here at SLO;

an odd opinion about apple
inspired by book:KARAOKE CAPITALISM

We have heard already people talking about apple in a language usually reserved for small, fluffy animals and close family members! If you like more soul than life, lick the buttons( Steve Jobs once said: " We made the buttons on the screen look so good you'll want to lick them" ) and wow experience you get all in one apple! If your company has to hire a new CEO, you hire Steve and you'll most likely have a true Chief Emotional Officer also. It seems like that magic apple has a synesthetic content, too..
But AAPL is about first, being fit by creating business models that are well adapted to the new business conditions and second, being sexy by building and creating emotional innovations and moods that attract and addict customers. In my opinion the company has the answers about what does the apple sound, feel, taste or smell like.
I'm not smart enough to predict whether share price will double or triple, but for sure more emotions will be added in any product they deliver so driving the sales.
Who will win, fundamental or emotional analysis?
see entry

Btw- Apple CEO Steve Jobs boasted about the company's strong results. "With over $17 billion in revenue for the first half of our fiscal year, we have strong momentum to launch some terrific new products in the coming quarters," Jobs said in a statement.
and
Apple chief financial officer Peter Oppenheimer did not appear too concerned about the economic slump. When asked if Apple is feeling any effects of the slowdown, Oppenheimer said that traffic in Apple's retail stores continue to grow.

It has been a volatile couple of months for Apple. Shares plunged earlier this year along with other tech stocks due to concerns about the slowing economy as well as fears about competition for Apple's iPhone from Research in Motion's etc In fact during those setbacks I've been buying it

Of course, would like to listen bearish opinions, if any.
In the meantime, enjoy your investing world!
Everything else is life!

Armin

armin's stock selection blog

Japanese Candlestick

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Dry Bulk Shipping Again!

Idea:
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Genco Shipping & Trading Limited ( GNK ) is an international shipping company that transports iron ore, coal, grain, steel products and other drybulk cargoes along worldwide shipping routes. The company's fleet of dry cargo vessels consists of Panamax, Handymax and Handysize vessels.

Genco, a Zacks #2 Rank (Buy), has a young fleet with an average age of six years compared to 16 years in the industry. The company's strategy is to manage and expand the fleet in a way that enables it to pay dividends to shareholders.

On Feb 13, Genco announced its fourth-quarter earnings and beat Wall Street estimates by 11.54%, or 12 cents per share. Net income was $33.5 million, or $1.16 per share, compared to $16.5 million, or 65 cents per share, in the fourth-quarter 2006. Analysts expected $1.04 per share.

Revenues increased 84% to $65.7 million from $35.7 million in the year-ago period, primarily due to the operation of a larger fleet.

The company has been successful in increasing rates. The average daily time charter equivalent, or TCE, rates obtained by the fleet increased 52.4% to $31,140 per day for the fourth quarter compared to $20,435 in the same period in 2006.

81% of the Fleet Secured on Contracts for 2008

On Mar 31, the company announced that it reached an agreement to extend the charter on one of its vessels, the Genco Marine, which was currently on charter with NYK Bulkship Europe S.A. The extended contract will be for 11 to 13 months at a rate of $47,000 per day, not including a 5% third party brokerage commission.

The company now has 81% of the fleet's available days secured on contracts for the rest of 2008. GNK believes securing these contracts will lock in earnings stability and will strengthen its ability to distribute large dividends to shareholders.

Analysts are Bullish about the First Quarter and 2008

Brokerage analysts are bullish on Genco for the first quarter and the year. Two out of five coverage analysts raised estimates in the last 30 days by one cent to $1.46 from $1.45. Sixty days ago, analysts were calling for $1.42 per share.

For the full year, consensus estimates rose 35 cents to $7.13 from $6.78 per share. Sixty days ago, analysts were estimating $6.70 a share.

Despite a recent run in the stock, the company still trades with a 2008 P/E of only 7.97. It has an outstanding five year average return on equity (ROE) of 20%. GNK's current dividend yield is approximately 5.70%. Analysts expect 2008 earnings growth of 36.85%.

by Zacks

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NFLX/Opinion

ongoing discussion

China economy slows a touch

By Eadie Chen and Simon Rabinovitch BEIJING (Reuters) - China shrugged off atrocious winter weather and a global credit crunch to post surprisingly strong economic growth of 10.6 percent for the first quarter. The outcome will be welcome to global...

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stockPick

Encore Acquisition Company ( EAC ), an independent exploration and production company, is in the hot energy sector and has seen its shares trade up sharply in recent sessions. Brokerage analysts have been raising estimates as crude and natural gas prices stay at elevated prices.

Two out of five covering analysts raised for the first quarter in the last week by one cent to 82 cents from 81 cents a share. For the year, analysts are equally as bullish. Two out of six analysts raised consensus estimates in the last week by seven cents to $3.38 from $3.31 a share. Estimates are up by 44% in the last 90 days.

Encore, a Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy), has surprised on estimates the last four quarters by 22.90%. EAC reports first-quarter earnings May 8...by Zacks
Sentiment. Buy
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What Warren thinks...

What Warren thinks...With Wall Street in chaos, Fortune naturally went to Omaha looking for wisdom. Warren Buffett talks about the economy, the credit crisis, Bear Stearns, and more.By Nicholas Varchaver,

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Opportunities remain intriguing over the long-run.

We upgrade our rating to Buy for Research In Motion (RIMM), following the company s record performance in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008 (ended March1) along with an encouraging financial outlook provided by management. We expect the smart-phone device market to gain momentum as opportunities remain intriguing over the long-run. The company s channel sales expansion initiatives are also considered an impetus for meaningful top-line growth as carriers in new geographical regions launch Blackberry-enabled services. It is our view that RIMM will be able to maintain favorable average selling prices (ASP), due to technical superiority, despite facing increased competition. The company introduced a series of next-generation BlackBerry smartphones, specifically targeting CDMA EV-DO, EDGE, and Wi-Fi networks as other competitors are challenged with entry into
numerous wireless carriers around the world.
Source: Zacks
Target: 140
armin's stock selection

What Could the Fed Do?

Since the Federal Reserve began rolling out ever more creative steps to unfreeze credit markets, it has sold or pledged a growing portion of its portfolio of Treasurys in order to put loans on its balance sheet to banks and securities dealers backed by mortgage-backed securities and other shunned collateral.

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Dividend Yield Stock

TAL International Group, Inc. ( TAL ) also recently issued a full-year and fourth-quarter report that included a dividend declaration as well.

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2 common retirement account mistakes

As the tax season deadline gets near, many people are thinking about where to put this year's retirement account contributions.

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Today’s Greatest Hits

How does the current economic crisis compare to the Great Depression? Should Congress do anything to help homeowners and the states? Members of the Joint Economic Committee were looking to Ben Bernanke for guidance today.As Rep. Elijah Cummings (D., Md.) told the Fed chairman: “You’re the expert. You’re the one that we depend […]

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M100 Model Portfolio Web Logs

This site is home to the web logs of the very best of the Marketocracy Model Fund managers. On their individual web blogs, you'll find sections that will help you understand each of these model funds' Performance, Portfolio, Timeliness, Strategy, Biography, and Journal.

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Do you have a place to trade?

I've made many stock market trading decisions in this place, either virtual or real. It's an island, seems like the Lake Tahoe surrounded by sea ; nature and net all around! Wish you a tranquil trading wherever your place to trade may be!

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Will the sun keep shining on LDK Solar? - InvestorPlaceBlogs

While many focus on the bull/bear debate with respect to the major indexes, there are many sectors that are trading well below the 20% down cut-off that defines a bear market. One sector that has been hit particularly hard is the solar sector. Many of the stocks trading in the group are down nearly 50%.

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Fed Says Tomayto, ECB Says Tomahto

ECB Governing Council member Christian Noyer made the clearest public case to date for why the ECB isn’t following the Fed with interest-rate cuts.Mr. Noyer — a noted moderate who heads of France’s central bank — commended the Fed’s proactive response in a Prague speech, saying governor “Mishkin’s case for a risk-management approach to U.S. monetary policy in the present juncture obviously provides a sound rationale for the last three rate cuts by the FOMC.” Further, Chairman Ben Bernanke’s “in-depth knowledge of the credit crunch of the 1930s in the U.S… probably also helped shape this view that there is a non-zero probability in the current juncture of an ‘ugly equilibrium’ of the debt-deflation type that must be addressed by prompt and vigorous policy action.”So why isn’t the ECB — which has kept euro-zone money markets flush with funds since August but left its key rate on hold at 4% — following suit?First: “European banks are not of course immune from losses due to their exposure to the U.S. subprime market … but this exposure is, on average, significantly lower than that of their U.S. counterparts and their model of universal banking allows them to mitigate the consequences of a crisis in one segment of their activity.” Second, low household debt levels and a “weak transmission of financial shocks to household consumption via the wealth channel” mean “the macroeconomic consequences of protracted financial distress should be relatively less disruptive in the euro area.” Finally, “the short-term economic outlook is more encouraging in the euro area than in the U.S. — even if our economies are slowing down, no recession lies on the horizon.”Like many of his Governing Council colleagues, Mr. Noyer stressed the primacy of inflation and inflation expectations in the ECB’s decisions. Still, he became the first ECB polic maker to refer directly to the conditions in which a rate cut might be plausible, saying, “a solid anchoring of inflation expectations remains a prerequisite for rate cuts.” After euro-zone inflation hit a record 3.5% in March, most analysts pushed back their expectations of the ECB’s first cut to September from June.Stressing a bit of common ground, Mr. Noyer did ask that central banks on both sides of the Atlantic be cut some slack: “We should keep in mind that central banks cannot and should not be held responsible for everything. … Indeed, regulatory lapses seem to me to lie at the heart of the subprime crisis.” –Joellen Perry

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