Buffett goes to Wharton

In this Web exclusive, we present further excerpts from his talk with the students, in which the megabillionaire offers his insights on judging managers, buying businesses, what metrics - if any - he relies upon, and why he views his job as similar to painting the Sistine Chapel.

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Fed could burst oil's bubble

Central bank rate cuts have devalued the dollar, fueling the rise in crude prices; but if rate slashing stops, oil's rise may ease.



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Weekend reading

Investing isn't just a coin tossThere's a lingering idea that past performance doesn't matter, even in investing. True, it's no guarantee, but performance does count. Here's why.

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AAPL

Many said that Apple's numbers were so-so, but not so bad at all after the iPod maker posts better-than-expected increase in revenue and profits on strong Mac. But Investors shouldn't be too surprised though since Apple consistently is conservative with its guidance. In fact I've been bullish on AAPL stock for sometime going back several months ago when wrote "love is blind" on my blog here at SLO;

an odd opinion about apple
inspired by book:KARAOKE CAPITALISM

We have heard already people talking about apple in a language usually reserved for small, fluffy animals and close family members! If you like more soul than life, lick the buttons( Steve Jobs once said: " We made the buttons on the screen look so good you'll want to lick them" ) and wow experience you get all in one apple! If your company has to hire a new CEO, you hire Steve and you'll most likely have a true Chief Emotional Officer also. It seems like that magic apple has a synesthetic content, too..
But AAPL is about first, being fit by creating business models that are well adapted to the new business conditions and second, being sexy by building and creating emotional innovations and moods that attract and addict customers. In my opinion the company has the answers about what does the apple sound, feel, taste or smell like.
I'm not smart enough to predict whether share price will double or triple, but for sure more emotions will be added in any product they deliver so driving the sales.
Who will win, fundamental or emotional analysis?
see entry

Btw- Apple CEO Steve Jobs boasted about the company's strong results. "With over $17 billion in revenue for the first half of our fiscal year, we have strong momentum to launch some terrific new products in the coming quarters," Jobs said in a statement.
and
Apple chief financial officer Peter Oppenheimer did not appear too concerned about the economic slump. When asked if Apple is feeling any effects of the slowdown, Oppenheimer said that traffic in Apple's retail stores continue to grow.

It has been a volatile couple of months for Apple. Shares plunged earlier this year along with other tech stocks due to concerns about the slowing economy as well as fears about competition for Apple's iPhone from Research in Motion's etc In fact during those setbacks I've been buying it

Of course, would like to listen bearish opinions, if any.
In the meantime, enjoy your investing world!
Everything else is life!

Armin

armin's stock selection blog

Japanese Candlestick

store here

Dry Bulk Shipping Again!

Idea:
more about my socialPicks here

Genco Shipping & Trading Limited ( GNK ) is an international shipping company that transports iron ore, coal, grain, steel products and other drybulk cargoes along worldwide shipping routes. The company's fleet of dry cargo vessels consists of Panamax, Handymax and Handysize vessels.

Genco, a Zacks #2 Rank (Buy), has a young fleet with an average age of six years compared to 16 years in the industry. The company's strategy is to manage and expand the fleet in a way that enables it to pay dividends to shareholders.

On Feb 13, Genco announced its fourth-quarter earnings and beat Wall Street estimates by 11.54%, or 12 cents per share. Net income was $33.5 million, or $1.16 per share, compared to $16.5 million, or 65 cents per share, in the fourth-quarter 2006. Analysts expected $1.04 per share.

Revenues increased 84% to $65.7 million from $35.7 million in the year-ago period, primarily due to the operation of a larger fleet.

The company has been successful in increasing rates. The average daily time charter equivalent, or TCE, rates obtained by the fleet increased 52.4% to $31,140 per day for the fourth quarter compared to $20,435 in the same period in 2006.

81% of the Fleet Secured on Contracts for 2008

On Mar 31, the company announced that it reached an agreement to extend the charter on one of its vessels, the Genco Marine, which was currently on charter with NYK Bulkship Europe S.A. The extended contract will be for 11 to 13 months at a rate of $47,000 per day, not including a 5% third party brokerage commission.

The company now has 81% of the fleet's available days secured on contracts for the rest of 2008. GNK believes securing these contracts will lock in earnings stability and will strengthen its ability to distribute large dividends to shareholders.

Analysts are Bullish about the First Quarter and 2008

Brokerage analysts are bullish on Genco for the first quarter and the year. Two out of five coverage analysts raised estimates in the last 30 days by one cent to $1.46 from $1.45. Sixty days ago, analysts were calling for $1.42 per share.

For the full year, consensus estimates rose 35 cents to $7.13 from $6.78 per share. Sixty days ago, analysts were estimating $6.70 a share.

Despite a recent run in the stock, the company still trades with a 2008 P/E of only 7.97. It has an outstanding five year average return on equity (ROE) of 20%. GNK's current dividend yield is approximately 5.70%. Analysts expect 2008 earnings growth of 36.85%.

by Zacks

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NFLX/Opinion

ongoing discussion

China economy slows a touch

By Eadie Chen and Simon Rabinovitch BEIJING (Reuters) - China shrugged off atrocious winter weather and a global credit crunch to post surprisingly strong economic growth of 10.6 percent for the first quarter. The outcome will be welcome to global...

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stockPick

Encore Acquisition Company ( EAC ), an independent exploration and production company, is in the hot energy sector and has seen its shares trade up sharply in recent sessions. Brokerage analysts have been raising estimates as crude and natural gas prices stay at elevated prices.

Two out of five covering analysts raised for the first quarter in the last week by one cent to 82 cents from 81 cents a share. For the year, analysts are equally as bullish. Two out of six analysts raised consensus estimates in the last week by seven cents to $3.38 from $3.31 a share. Estimates are up by 44% in the last 90 days.

Encore, a Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy), has surprised on estimates the last four quarters by 22.90%. EAC reports first-quarter earnings May 8...by Zacks
Sentiment. Buy
twitter

What Warren thinks...

What Warren thinks...With Wall Street in chaos, Fortune naturally went to Omaha looking for wisdom. Warren Buffett talks about the economy, the credit crisis, Bear Stearns, and more.By Nicholas Varchaver,

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Twitter Updates

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Opportunities remain intriguing over the long-run.

We upgrade our rating to Buy for Research In Motion (RIMM), following the company s record performance in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008 (ended March1) along with an encouraging financial outlook provided by management. We expect the smart-phone device market to gain momentum as opportunities remain intriguing over the long-run. The company s channel sales expansion initiatives are also considered an impetus for meaningful top-line growth as carriers in new geographical regions launch Blackberry-enabled services. It is our view that RIMM will be able to maintain favorable average selling prices (ASP), due to technical superiority, despite facing increased competition. The company introduced a series of next-generation BlackBerry smartphones, specifically targeting CDMA EV-DO, EDGE, and Wi-Fi networks as other competitors are challenged with entry into
numerous wireless carriers around the world.
Source: Zacks
Target: 140
armin's stock selection

What Could the Fed Do?

Since the Federal Reserve began rolling out ever more creative steps to unfreeze credit markets, it has sold or pledged a growing portion of its portfolio of Treasurys in order to put loans on its balance sheet to banks and securities dealers backed by mortgage-backed securities and other shunned collateral.

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Dividend Yield Stock

TAL International Group, Inc. ( TAL ) also recently issued a full-year and fourth-quarter report that included a dividend declaration as well.

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2 common retirement account mistakes

As the tax season deadline gets near, many people are thinking about where to put this year's retirement account contributions.

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Today’s Greatest Hits

How does the current economic crisis compare to the Great Depression? Should Congress do anything to help homeowners and the states? Members of the Joint Economic Committee were looking to Ben Bernanke for guidance today.As Rep. Elijah Cummings (D., Md.) told the Fed chairman: “You’re the expert. You’re the one that we depend […]

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M100 Model Portfolio Web Logs

This site is home to the web logs of the very best of the Marketocracy Model Fund managers. On their individual web blogs, you'll find sections that will help you understand each of these model funds' Performance, Portfolio, Timeliness, Strategy, Biography, and Journal.

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Do you have a place to trade?

I've made many stock market trading decisions in this place, either virtual or real. It's an island, seems like the Lake Tahoe surrounded by sea ; nature and net all around! Wish you a tranquil trading wherever your place to trade may be!

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Will the sun keep shining on LDK Solar? - InvestorPlaceBlogs

While many focus on the bull/bear debate with respect to the major indexes, there are many sectors that are trading well below the 20% down cut-off that defines a bear market. One sector that has been hit particularly hard is the solar sector. Many of the stocks trading in the group are down nearly 50%.

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Fed Says Tomayto, ECB Says Tomahto

ECB Governing Council member Christian Noyer made the clearest public case to date for why the ECB isn’t following the Fed with interest-rate cuts.Mr. Noyer — a noted moderate who heads of France’s central bank — commended the Fed’s proactive response in a Prague speech, saying governor “Mishkin’s case for a risk-management approach to U.S. monetary policy in the present juncture obviously provides a sound rationale for the last three rate cuts by the FOMC.” Further, Chairman Ben Bernanke’s “in-depth knowledge of the credit crunch of the 1930s in the U.S… probably also helped shape this view that there is a non-zero probability in the current juncture of an ‘ugly equilibrium’ of the debt-deflation type that must be addressed by prompt and vigorous policy action.”So why isn’t the ECB — which has kept euro-zone money markets flush with funds since August but left its key rate on hold at 4% — following suit?First: “European banks are not of course immune from losses due to their exposure to the U.S. subprime market … but this exposure is, on average, significantly lower than that of their U.S. counterparts and their model of universal banking allows them to mitigate the consequences of a crisis in one segment of their activity.” Second, low household debt levels and a “weak transmission of financial shocks to household consumption via the wealth channel” mean “the macroeconomic consequences of protracted financial distress should be relatively less disruptive in the euro area.” Finally, “the short-term economic outlook is more encouraging in the euro area than in the U.S. — even if our economies are slowing down, no recession lies on the horizon.”Like many of his Governing Council colleagues, Mr. Noyer stressed the primacy of inflation and inflation expectations in the ECB’s decisions. Still, he became the first ECB polic maker to refer directly to the conditions in which a rate cut might be plausible, saying, “a solid anchoring of inflation expectations remains a prerequisite for rate cuts.” After euro-zone inflation hit a record 3.5% in March, most analysts pushed back their expectations of the ECB’s first cut to September from June.Stressing a bit of common ground, Mr. Noyer did ask that central banks on both sides of the Atlantic be cut some slack: “We should keep in mind that central banks cannot and should not be held responsible for everything. … Indeed, regulatory lapses seem to me to lie at the heart of the subprime crisis.” –Joellen Perry

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armin's stock buzz

GROW...Funds Continue Success

Financials: With home prices falling and the inventory of unsold homes rising, financial companies involved with the real-estate industry look like they have more trouble ahead. However, many financial companies have nothing to do with real estate or subprime mortgages and so have no exposure to the kinds of losses that have been making headlines. It is worth looking for these companies because they may be some of the biggest beneficiaries of lower interest rates, without the corresponding baggage that the lower rates were meant to offset. The two I like are U.S. Global Investors

The Wall Street Journal ’ s latest quarterly fund report ranks three U.S. Global funds in the top 1 percent overall and another fund in the top 2 percent overall as of December 31, 2007. The report also lists two U.S. Global large-cap funds among the top 10 funds in their categories in the latest 12-month period.

In addition, one of the company ’ s municipal bond funds was ranked #1 in the short-intermediate municipal debt category for the year ending December 31, 2007, and three other U.S. Global funds also earned top-quartile rankings in various time periods, according to Lipper.
Sentiment: Buy

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armin's stock selection

Follow Astra portfolio through Strategy Lab open round 2!

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Thanks!
Have a good weekend!
Collected reading around the net:
Parents’ Pessimism Affects Children’s Investing

PX is rapidly growing in Asia ...

Praxair, Inc. ( PX ) is the largest industrial gases company in North and South America, and one of the largest worldwide. The company produces, sells and distributes atmospheric and process gases, and high-performance surface coatings. Praxair products, services and technologies bring productivity and environmental benefits to a wide variety of industries, including aerospace, chemicals, food and beverage, electronics, energy, healthcare, manufacturing, metals and others.
The company’s leading market position in North and South America should support long-term growth.
Fourth-quarter earnings per share of 98 cents outpaced the consensus estimate by 2% and surpassed the previous year’s 82 cents. For the full year, PX posted earnings per share of $3.62, topping the year-prior $3.00. more


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PCP(Precision Castparts Corp.) Update

Precision Castparts Corp., which makes metal components for the aerospace and automotive markets, said that its fiscal 2008 third-quarter profit jumped 55 percent, boosted by strong sales across all major segments.
The company reported income of $246.5 million, or $1.76 per share, compared with $158.7 million, or $1.15 per share, in the year-ago period.
Total sales rose 23 percent to $1.7 billion from $1.38 billion in the third quarter of fiscal 2007.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial, on average, estimated earnings of $1.72 per share on sales of $1.74 billion.
Sales from the company's investment cast products segment rose 24 percent to $540.9 million in the third quarter.
Forged products sales increased 21 percent to $771.8 million, while sales from the company's fastener products division grew 24 percent to $383.9 million. Additionally, year-over-year non-aerospace shipments increased to oil and gas, chemical processing, pollution control and other markets, Precision Castparts said.

Risk to the PCP's operations are directly linked to the aerospace industry. As a result, any
slowdown in the industry could lead to a decline in demand for its products. Additionally, fluctuation in the prices of basic materials could affect PCP's business.
I believe that demand for its products will remain high.

Astra portfolio: PCP Marketocracy tracking records as of January 25, 2008.
Portion of fund: 3.24%
Days held: 179
Inception return: - 19.15%

Opinion: Buy

Astra

my funds @ Marketocracy...

AAPL!

Love is Blind
an odd opinion about apple
inspired by the book:KARAOKE CAPITALISM

We have heard already people talking about apple in a language usually reserved for small, fluffy animals and close family members! If you like more soul than life, lick the buttons( Steve Jobs once said: " We made the buttons on the screen look so good you'll want to lick them" ) and wow experience you get all in one apple! If your company has to hire a new CEO, you hire Steve and you'll most likely have a true Chief Emotional Officer also. It seems like that magic apple has a synesthetic content, too..
But AAPL is about first, being fit by creating business models that are well adapted to the new business conditions and second, being sexy by building and creating emotional innovations and moods that attract and addict customers. In my opinion the company has the answers about what does the apple sound, feel, taste or smell like.
I'm not smart enough to predict whether share price will double or triple, but for sure more emotions will be added in any product they deliver so driving the sales.
Who will win, fundamental or emotional analysis?
I believe both, the latter being the likeliest place to imagine its future value.

I bought AAPL in my Astra portfolio on very first day of SLO I, will hold through the SLO II .
Activity:
Days held: 178
First trade: Jul 30, 2007
Inception return: - 1.10%

post

Apple Core Hits Wall Street

armin's stock selection blog here

armin's stock selection

armin's stock selection blog here

Recessions/Stock drops

But what's a recession? Business cycles are made up of periods of economic expansion and recessions, when the economy is contracting. The generally accepted arbiter of when U.S. recessions begin and end is the "business cycle dating committee" of the 87-year old National Bureau of Economic Research, a non-profit group based in Cambridge, Mass., that is made up of 600 academic economists. The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months," and usually visible in measures such as gross domestic product, employment, incomes and industrial production. A popular rule of thumb says a recession is two consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP, although that doesn't fit some NBER-designated recessions. But recessions don't always coincide with stock drops:

more

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POST Strategy!

My experience in the stock market investing is more about what I do and less about what you should do!

The pillars of the POST:

Portfolio Management Opportunities Sense Time

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Investing Axioms

There is a book The Zurich Axioms, The rules of risk and reward used by generations of Swiss bankers by Max Gunther, providing a practical philosophy for the realistic management of risk, which can be followed successfully by anyone, not merely the 'experts'. Of course. it's not a kind of recipe for success, but you can enjoy reading, too. Some sayings are not necessarily bound to investing world, but sound practical. Strategy Lab Open competition seems like golf tournament, not all of us will become next Tiger Woods who is a great golfer, but, strangely, he usually hits lousy bunker shots. How has he dealt with the problem?Living in a bunker!No! By perfecting and refining his main strength, the swing. If it works like a clock, he never has to pay the bunkers a visit.
I suggest this Latin proverb:
"Quidquid agis, prudenter agas et respice finem!"
translation:
Whatever you do, do cautiously, and look to the end.

You can read more at:
marketocracy general forums Quote of the Year

What's your favorite one?

TNH /Terra Nitrogen

Update:
Terra Nitrogen is the smallest agricultural company , but it shows the most interesting short-term opportunity. The stock rallied up to 140 in July and pulled back. It returned to this level in December and broke out two weeks later, completing a cup-and-handle pattern.
The rally spike hit 159 a few days later, with price then pulling back sharply. That decline undercut the breakout level for three sessions. The stock jumped higher on Friday and ran up to a new high on Monday. This sets up an excellent trade entry when price pulls back to fill the 147 to 150 gap.

larger image
Will hold this stock into SLO Round 2.
ASTRA portfolio::
TNH
Portion of fund: 8.15%
Inception return: 36.48 % (Since July31, 2007)
more

BUSINESS SUMMARY
Terra Nitrogen Company, L.P., through its subsidiary, Terra Nitrogen, Limited Partnership, engages in the production and distribution of nitrogen fertilizer products for use in agricultural and industrial markets. Its nitrogen product includes anhydrous ammonia, a form of nitrogen fertilizer and the feedstock for the production of other nitrogen fertilizers, such as urea ammonium nitrate solutions (UAN). Terra also produces UAN by combining urea solution and ammonium nitrate solution. Terra Nitrogen GP, Inc. serves as the general partner of the company. It sells its products primarily in the Central and Southern Plains and Corn Belt regions of the United States. Terra's customers include dealers, national farm retail chains, distributors, and other fertilizer producers and traders. The company was founded in 1991 and is based in Sioux City, Iowa. Terra Nitrogen Co. LP operates as a subsidiary of Terra Nitrogen Corporation.

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Dry Bulk Shipping

International shipping plays a vital role in global trade given that 2/3 of the world's goods are transported by sea. The shipping industry provides a cost effective and practical means of transportation internationally of large volumes of cargoes.

The dry bulk carrier market refers to the transportation of homogeneous commodities in bulk. Dry bulk commodities are divided into two distinct categories, major bulks and minor bulks. Major bulks include iron ore, coal and grain, which are usually shipped on the larger size Capesize and Panamax vessels and comprise about 67% of dry bulk trade. Minor bulks are fertilizers, steels, sugars, cement etc., which are shipped in smaller more versatile vessels such as Handymax and Handysize, and comprise about 33% of the dry bulk commodities trade.

Dry bulk carrier ownership is fragmented with many owners and operators of shipping tonnage, including independent operators, state-controlled shipping companies and proprietary owners. Vessels utilised for transport of dry bulk cargoes are usually classified into four categories based on their carrying capacity in deadweight tons (DWT) (i) handysize (10,000-39,999 DWT) (ii) handymax/supramax (40,000-59,999 DWT) (iii) panamax (60,000-99,999 DWT) and (iv) capesize (higher than 100,000 DWT).

The shipping industry is highly cyclical, experiencing volatility in profitability, vessel values and charter rates resulting from changes in the supply of and demand for shipping capacity. Fluctuations result from the interaction of various factors between demand and supply. The demand for vessels is influenced by global and regional economic conditions, international trade developments, port congestion, trading routes and weather pattern changes, crop yields, armed conflicts, political developments, embargoes and strikes, demand for consumer goods, dry bulk commodities, and crude oil and oil products.

Supply of shipping capacity is mainly a function of the delivery of new vessels and the number of older vessels scrapped and is also affected among other things by port congestion and regulation of maritime transportation practices by governmental and international authorities.
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Congrats to Vad!

The winner of SLO Round1
Frankly, I didn't know you're good in Greek language as well.

stretcheddelta

iis a new letter!

Significant difference is a keyword!
Congrats again!
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Thanks!